NFL Lines and Week 4 Bets: How to Handle the Home Field Advantage

Sports bettors have long placed their trust in various supposedly “systems” that can guide their choices. Some are complicatedsuch as betting an NFL team 6-11 (or worse) from the previous season as the underdog on the road in a game during September, November, or December (not October) with a total of less than 50 points and a point difference of less than seven.

Others are much simpler, such as placing trust in the underdogs in the NFL. This was the focus of a reader’s question. (Do you have a question of your own? send it here.)

A long time ago I learned about a betting strategy in the NFL called “The Dog in the House”. His name describes the simple technique: if the home team is the underdog, take the points and bet on the home team. your thoughts?

The reader presented the question

I can understand why betting on the underdog house has an appeal. Your team gets all the amenities of their home stadium, no travel, familiarity with the venue and crowd support – plus bonus points from the odds makers. What do you not like?

However, if it were that simple to come up with a successful system, then gambling operators would not be able to build multibillion-dollar pyramids in the desert. In fact, trusting the underdog at home is not a viable strategy at all – and it hasn’t been for some time.

Back in 2002, when the NFL expanded to include 32 teams, the rookie’s overall coverage rate on homes was 49.7 percent and would only be profitable on traditional -110 bets – which require a $110 bet to win $100 – in four of the 20 Complete past seasons.

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However, this basic strategy will be profitable so far this season with a coverage rate of 61 percent, yielding a profit of nearly four units in three weeks, although the sample size is too small to be valuable. The system is even over the past two decades if you assign domestic dogs to those who score seven or more points.

We put aside the most important reasons for the inability to discover Which A successful “system”, which is why you’re unlikely to find much success with this particular strategy in the long run: the home field advantage in the NFL has waned in recent years.

The domestic teams went 148-107-1 during the 2002 regular season, with an impressive win rate of 0.580. The win ratio stayed north of 0.550 in 14 of the following 16 seasons, never dropping below 0.531. Then the bottom fell. The domestic teams have gone to 424-404-4 from 2019 to the present, winning just 51 percent of the time. Domestic teams were under 0.500 in 2020, and while this season has been affected by the pandemic, it seemed to be a sign That the advantage of home domain may never be the same.

This trend, not surprisingly, has prompted bookmakers to modify what was once thought to be a standard feature in the home field. In 2002, the home team’s favorite averaged 2.1 points. But in five of the past six seasons, the home team has been favored by two points or less. This season, local teams have been favored by about half a point in three weeks.

It is unlikely that following any strategy blindly will lead to much success. Instead, consider each team – home or away, favorites or underdogs – and agree on their own merits.

If you are be Get ready to find an underdog at home to bet on in Week 4, keep in mind that the Houston Texans have five or more points against the Los Angeles Chargers, who have major injuries on their roster.


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Midfielder Justin Herbert plays with a broken rib cartilage. Former Defensive Player of the Year Joey Bossa will be out indefinitely with a thigh injury. Center Corey Linsley was out of the game in Week 2 with a knee injury and was inactive in a blast loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Left Rookie Rashawn Slater’s interference ruptured his left biceps tendon in a Jacksonville game and will miss the rest of the season. Cornerback JC Jackson required ankle surgery in August and was inactive in week 3.

please keep you Questions about upcoming sports bettingWe will answer more in the next pieces.

over here This week’s matcheswith my choices. Shots were made against Consensus spreads As of Tuesday afternoon; Odds that have since changed are updated in bold, but choices in previous possibilities are locked.

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings (-3½), in London

Sunday, 9:30 am | NFL network

Choose: Minnesota Vikings -2½ (this number has since gone up)

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3½)

Choose: Tennessee Titans +3 (This number has since gone up.)

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-2½)

Choose: Chicago Bears + 3½ (this number has since decreased).

Buffalo Bills (-3) at the Baltimore Ravens

Choose: Baltimore Ravens + 3½ (this number has since decreased)

Los Angeles Chargers (-5½) in Houston Texas

Pick: Houston Texans +5 (this number has since gone up)

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3½)

Choose: Detroit Lions -4½ (this number has since decreased)

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3½)

Choose: New York Jets + 3½ (this number has since decreased)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6½)

Choose: Philadelphia Eagles -6½

Washington Leaders at Dallas Cowboys (-3½)

Choose: Dallas Cowboys -3½

Cleveland Browns (-1) at the Atlanta Falcons

Choose: Atlanta Falcons + 1½ (this number has since decreased)

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-9½)

Choose: New England + 10½, but it’s not your best bet. (This number has since decreased.)

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2½)

Choose: Las Vegas Raiders -2 (This number has since gone up.)

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-1)

Choose: Carolina Panthers -1½, can run up to -2½ (this line has since moved down)

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2½ (This number has since decreased, and Bucs are preferred now.)

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-1½)

Monday, 8:15 pm | ESPN, ESPN2

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -2½ (This number has since fallen.)

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