Four Reasons The Braves Shouldn’t Be Repeated As World Champion In 2022

Remember 2000?

Oh man, that was a long time ago. I wasn’t too far from high school and I’m pretty sure one of my classmates wasn’t even born yet, even though he claims otherwise. Perhaps “Y2K” was still a topic of conversation and only one Star Wars prequel was released.

Moreover , Yankees He won the world championship that fall. It was their third championship in a row.

Since then, no team has repeated as world champions. This definitely points our eyes in the direction of the current title holder Atlanta Braves.

Will they repeat?

Well, they can very well. Stacked. They won 101 regular season games and came back from a 10 1/2 game deficit. The running difference does not indicate that they have a great fortune in the sequence or anything else. They have great attack, great rotation and great bull. They went 78-34 after May, a full season pace of 113 wins.

Wait, I’m supposed to talk about why that is wont Win it again. Let’s try.

Strider mode

The Braves playoff turn can be ridiculously excellent. Max Fried is an ace. Kyle Wright is very good and is able to come across as a frontline rookie at times, even if the most appropriate is all three. Charlie Morton is very inconsistent – after all, he’s 38 years old – but he also manages to come across as a frontline man with short stints. Then there is Spencer Strider. He was an ace in his time in rotation. This is likely to be among the infernal top four.

naturally , Newly unlocked Strider He recently had a right slash injury (throwing side). The Braves put him on the NLDS roster on Tuesday and were due to throw a pulp, but we’ll see if he can make it to a game.

If he can’t, or starts it and puts it back early in the game, the spin is decently damaged. Without Strider, Morton moves into third, then either rookie Bryce Elder – who is certainly capable of a good start – or veteran Jake Odorizzi is fourth. Things would get a little shaky without a Strider in full force.

The Braves patched it all together with less-than-ideal rotations last year and won the World Championship, but…

Funky things happen in a short series

It’s worth repeating, even if Braves fans get tired of hearing it, that the 2021 Braves had the lowest winning total of any playoff team and won it all. They were a team with 88 wins and 106 wins Dodgers In the NLCS in only six games. Remember the wild Citizens Topping the Dodgers in 2019? We just watched sailors sweep the blue jaysAnd the Phyllis sweep the basics And the Padres Take down 101 wins mets.

Recent history is replete with examples of inferior regular season teams beating strong teams and the shorter the sample play, the better the chances of breaking down.

For this team in particular, only three defeats in five games would do so in this round and then only four out of seven in the NLCS or World Championships. They’ve lost at this rate a few times this season, even when it’s been super hot. Immediately after a 14-game winning streak, they lost three of five, including two to the Cubs. They lost five of six in early August and four of five in mid-September.

A small string like that is all it takes.

What if crime declined? that happens! Even for a high-octane group like these brave ones. They scored three runs in three matches from September 21-23. If we do the episodes on September 20, there will be six runs in four games.

What if Kenley Jansen stumbles again? From August 27 – September. At 11, he hit three saves on seven chances, coughed seven times on seven hits in 5 and 2/3 runs. If an extension like this happens again in a short series with converging games, that alone could bury the brave.

Just to repeat, what if Strider is injured during, say, the first half of Game 2 in a series? Then, they strive to sort things out by turns and sometimes when one of the teams goes up.

You never know how things will go down, but sometimes to the chasers it feels like we’ve blinked outwardly and lost their playoff season.

Field loaded

One of the other 100 wins is gone, but the Dodgers (111-51) may be waiting for the Braves in the NLCS, if the Braves can beat the Phillies. On the AL side, 106-56 Astros The Yankees 99-63 beat their teammates in the strength division. Even if someone made the mistake of opposing teams like Mariners, Phillies, Padres and guardiansthe brave have their hands full of intense competition for repetition.

In any case, even if the playing field looks poor, the odds of any individual team winning everything are very poor when there are eight teams left.

Take this year, and it’s definitely not a weak field. According to SportsLine, here are the odds of winning the World Championship:

  • Dodgers 25.2%
  • Yankees 19.1%
  • Astros 14.3%
  • Padres 12.6%
  • Brave 11.4%
  • Phillies 7.4%
  • Guardians 6.6%
  • Sailors 3.4%

One does not have to agree with the above arrangement or the dispersal of proportions to understand the concept that with eight teams remaining, the individual probabilities of each are low. Specifically, here we have four teams that have better chances and the Braves don’t have a much better chance than a one in 10.

The exercise you did above to come up with events that could derail the brave? I am well aware that we can do this for every remaining team. I didn’t focus on the brave because I felt like it; I focused on them because they are the defending champions and there’s a reason we haven’t seen a repeat champion since 2000. It’s very difficult to do, the odds are against him and a lot has to go in the team’s way for it to happen.

Someone will defy the odds this season. There will be a team with enough things going their way that they will raise that “coin” (tsk, tsk, Mr. Manfred) in early November and then be given the rings the next spring. Modern history says he wouldn’t be brave, that’s all.

Nobody repeats anymore

It won’t happen to Braves because it didn’t happen to DiamondbacksAnd the AngelsAnd the MarlinsAnd the red socksAnd the white socksCardinals, Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, giantsCardinals, Giants, Red Sox, Giants, RoyalsAnd the CubsAstros, Red Sox, Citizens or Dodgers.

That’s common sense, isn’t it?

no not like that. I know that’s bad logic, but the odds are overwhelmingly against the Braves that have repeated this season, so I’m going to lose them at some point. Anyone who disagrees, you can be brave and I’ll take the field. Deal?

Leave a Comment