Fantasy Football Week 3 lineup decisions: starting, sitting, sleeping and figurines to know for every game

Fantasy football is all about the matches. Although you drafted your squad with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly squad decisions should not be based on the order you choose for your players. You need to check out the players that are playing and make sure you get the right players–and the wrong guys.

It’s too soon to be completely sure which encounters will be easy and which will be difficult, but we can take some informed guesses based on healthy individuals, defensive plans, tracking records, and key details of crimes. The things we know can help us reduce the impact of things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions.

We’ll go through every game and highlight players who aren’t obvious in their prime and sit (because you don’t need to be asked to start Jonathan Taylor). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information provided, getting comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

Sit him up (squad decisions)

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  • Cooper lined up extensively in roughly two weeks. It also operates avenues of over 16 yards on only 4 of 61 lanes. It’s safe to say he’d still need a lot of goals and touchdowns to be really good for Fantasy.

  • The thing is, these are realistic odds. The Steelers allowed three touchdowns, a 68% catch rate and 4.79 YAC/rec (yards after catch per reception) to the outside receivers through the first two games. But improving their passing defense will be a point of focus after some glitches last week.

  • I expect the Steelers to play a lot of men’s cover with safety hovering toward Cooper, and I don’t think they’ll attack a ton (Jacoby Brissett has already beaten the attack a few times this year). Cooper saw a target of 35% per running share on the road versus human coverage this year, but with ineffective results (57% catch rate, 8.3 yards per catch).

Sit him up (squad decisions)

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  • The Dolphins allowed a 78.3% completion rate and 200 yards (second most) to oppose tight ends within two weeks. But more than half the yards went to the highly-targeted Mark Andrews last week; Knox is not in the same class.
  • The match has been favorable for Knox in the past against the Dolphins, but even when he scores on them, he’s maxed out at 11 PPR.

Bust filter (lineup decisions)

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  • This will not be easy for Tagoviloa. Not that it’s a mess when immersed but it is less effective compared to not overstated, and is specifically worse against area coverage (64.4% completion rate, 87.3 QB rating) than men’s coverage (89.5% completion rate, 156.5 QB rating). The Bills played area coverage for just over 90% of their shots in two weeks and have the second best passing pressure rate (41.6%) so far in 2022. They’ll try to get to Tagovailoa while keeping their defense slashed down so they don’t give up big play.
  • This means that Tagoviloa will have to get rid of the ball quickly for an extended period of time. Against area coverage and with 2.4 seconds or less to throw, Tagoviloa completed 69.6% of his throws (29-best) over 23 backhand dips (the fifth largest!) for 5.87 yards per attempt (best 20) and no touchdowns (no good). It’s considerably more efficient when it has more time than that, but its completion rate is still an ugly 60% (best 21).
  • The Bills did a great job against Jaylen Waddle last year. Their results against Terrick Hill when he was in Kansas City were outstanding (less than 75 yards per game) in the regular season; Awesome in the playoffs (over 150 yards per game). Both numbers to get a large number of goals.

Start him in PPR (Squad Decisions)

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  • Cover-3 Captain Joss Bradley will bring the Colts heavy plotter into the area to prevent Patrick Mahomes from throwing too deep. In these situations, I like short area targets like Smith-Schuster to hit a size-driven stat line.
  • Last week, Smith-Schuster shots were split evenly between aperture and outside view, a change from being more of an outside receiver in Week 1. My hunch is that Smith-Schuster will be more in the aperture this week to avoid coverage from Stephon Gilmore. Kenny Moore allowed the Colts slot to have an 81.8% catch rate on 11 targets through two games with a touchdown in each.
  • Mahomes has thrown 17 passes this season against Cover-3, completing 89.5% of his throws for 271 yards. Smith-Schuster associates with Travis Kelce at most receptions against this coverage scheme (four).

Sneaky Sleeper (lineup decisions)

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what do you know:

  • We got old James Winston back, if only for a week. Winston went crazy with deep throws, averaging 13.22 air yards per pass attempt (topping out among week two starters by a mile, albeit not literally), but with two of his three interceptions coming on those long throws.
  • Last year, Winston was under pressure in 58.6% of pass attempts by the Panthers, the third most pass attempts by any team in any week in 2021. He threw two interceptions and touched no goal in a Panthers win. The Panthers ranked 10th in average pass pressure in two weeks.
  • So the bet is that Winston’s coaches run him in shorter, faster throws, which are more suitable for Andre even though Landry himself got some deep goals in the first week.
  • Statistically, the Panthers’ passing defense was great against recipients, but they faced the Browns and the Giants. Not that Landry is better than Amari Cooper or Sterling Shepard, but the Saints will be a much more severe test for them. And for what it’s worth, the Panthers’ only passing defense flaw so far this season has been the high catch rate allowed for receivers (88.2% ranks sixth among the worst). Landry mostly line up in the slot.

Start Him (Squad Decisions)

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  • Pierce took some positive steps forward last week, playing 63% of shots and two of three within 10 yards. While his vision and patience aren’t quite there yet, his strength has flashed and he has exploded in a number of rounds last week. It also helped him improve the Texas offensive line.
  • Meanwhile, the Bears were blown away by the Packers, allowing 5.85 yards per lunge and sealing a bottom six in every defense meter imaginable. Notably, this is the second week in a row that they have ranked poorly in yards before calling for each allowed dash (1.79 yards per season ranked seventh worst). Chicago got hit particularly hard on the edges (6.3 yards per carry allowed; 39.3% of runs made the first touchdown).

Flex Starter (Squad Decisions)

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  • This may be the game that makes or breaks Money. It’s the first Chicago game of the year where Justin Fields shouldn’t be under serious pressure – his O-streak gave up pressure on nearly half of his waning backs. That’s why Fields isn’t throwing for anyone, not just Mooney.
  • But make no mistake, Mooney is opening up and he will have really good numbers if the fields are better protected. It should happen against the Texans, who are ranked 25th in burst pressure average despite being tied for 10th in lightning attacks.
  • Texas is also in the bottom 10 on nearly every single defense metric against wide receivers (including yards per catch, YAC/rec and missed tackles), with two exceptions: 60.8% allowable catch rate is a top 10 thanks to 11 passes defended (The best in football).

Start Him (Squad Decisions)

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  • Cousins ​​seemed very out of sync against Philadelphia. Many of his throws didn’t have his usual pace and he seemed to be focused on getting the ball out of the way as quickly as possible. He threw three deep passes, got one and would have completed two if not for a bad touchdown by Irv Smith.
  • A showdown against the Lions should do better — Cousins ​​will be at home against a pass defense that allowed three touchdowns and 337 yards last week to Carson Wentz and 12.08 yards per catch (sixth worst) in two weeks. Cousins ​​also placed at least 23 Fantasy points in three of his previous four points against the Lions.
  • Expect the Lions to receive as many sneak attacks as they have all season, but with the area behind them covered. His cousins ​​should be able to get past that with the help of his offensive line. He should be good for at least 250 yards and a few points, especially because he’s gaining more Adam Tillen’s engagement after barely communicating with him in Week 2 (or Week 1).

Sit down (lineup decision)

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  • The continuation of the barrage of targets heading for Amon-Ra St. Brown puts a lid on Hockenson’s upside. Hockenson still had a not-so-bad 19.4% target share at two weeks, but he caught half of those targets for 9.14 yards per grab.
  • Hawkinson also doesn’t run much—of the 60 trails he runs, only 10 were more than 11 yards down, and only one of those 10 routes resulted in a goal. This means it’s more of a short-term safety valve for Jared Goff and not a primary focal point.
  • That doubles within 10 yards, playing 11 shots but only ran three ways and had no goals.
  • The Vikings aren’t necessarily champions against tight ends – they’ve allowed a 78.6% catch rate so far this season, the lowest five. But Dallas Goodert’s 5-82-0 stat streak from last week seems horribly unlikely for Hockinson given his limitations in the attacking lions.

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Flex Starter in Non-PPR (Squad Decisions)

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Expect the Patriots to experience the front of the Seven Crows. Within two weeks, the crows experienced the seventh-lowest lunge attempts by running back and allowed 5.09 yards per carry and the second-worst 2.09 yards before calling per carry. Keep in mind that this was against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams with shady offensive streaks.

Those runs between tackles specifically were the Ravens’ toughest—they allowed 5.39 yards per lunge to run back on those plays with seven missed tackles. Both occupy seventh place in the ranking.

Harris averages 4.68 yards per run among the competitors with 26.3% of his runs resulting in first touchdowns or touchdowns. These are ranked 20th among his eligible peers across the league, which is not a bad thing. It also outperforms Rhamondre Stevenson in load, shots and nearly every efficiency measure in running back in two weeks.

Flex Starter in PPR (Decisoins assortment)

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Stats to know:

  • The Ravens played a lot of area coverage the first two weeks, including early in the two games when their opponents weren’t chasing points on the scoreboard. The Ravens also have a league average in passing pressure and just below the league average in blitzing rate, suggesting that their passing rush isn’t as serious as it used to be.
  • These factors help prepare Myers for another outing with some good size. Myers saw at least 20% of his team’s target share each week including a staggering 38% share in Week Two against the Steelers.
  • Clearly, the Ravens rank last in a range of pass defense categories after last week, but even in 10-yard throws, the Ravens are last in missed tackles in wide saves with 10.

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