Next week, it could enter the Gulf of Mexico, although its exact path remains uncertain. If we assume that it grows to at least become a tropical storm, it will be called hermine. The National Hurricane Center gives him a 90 percent chance of doing so.
For now, anyone residing along the Gulf Coast and Florida should pay close attention to this as the outlook evolves in the coming days.
At present, it is poorly regulated. The reason it hasn’t done much yet is because of disruptive shear, or the change in wind speed and/or direction with altitude, that it’s resisting. Too much shear can knock a nascent storm far behind, as if it were being hit by an atmospheric tug of war. This shear is caused by the high flow, or exhaust, of Fiona far to the northeast.
Invest a 98L that will meander west over the coming days, and will still be held back by mowing until Sunday. Things will escalate Quickly Sunday evening to Monday.
That’s when the shear rests at the same time as it moves 98 liters over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic. The Northwest Caribbean is full of ocean heat content, or the thermal energy contained in sea-like seawater, which will support the acceleration of merging and the strengthening of the nascent storm.
At the same time, 98 liters – by then probably a named storm – will move under the higher-level high-pressure system. This will work for the 98L in two ways:
- bifurcation. Higher pressure means the air is distributed far apart. This difference in the upper atmosphere would have a vacuum-like effect, creating a vacuum and facilitating the rise of surface air. This optimization of rising thunderstorms will speed up the speed of the warm, wet “flow” rush into the storm.
- flow. Elevations rotate clockwise. This is the direction of tropical cyclone flow in the Northern Hemisphere. This higher pressure with 98 liters will work to evacuate “spent” air at higher altitudes away from the storm, allowing it to swallow more squeezed air from below. Imagine placing an exhaust fan at the top of a chimney. Air will be drawn in and out, which means more air rushes in from the bottom and the base catches fire. This storm will do the same.
A very strong storm is likely to fall somewhere in the northwest Caribbean on Monday. It may condense rapidly at that point.
However, it can head anywhere from the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico to central Cuba. But the storm could also creep between those areas, entering the Gulf of Mexico sometime late Monday or Tuesday.
There are only two escape routes that might allow the storm to avoid the bay. There is an outward chance that if it remains weak, it could continue west into the Caribbean towards Central America. If strengthened quickly, it could flip north over central Cuba and head toward the Atlantic Ocean. But only a minority of simulations present these exogenous scenarios.
Most simulations predict that the system will end up in the bay – while minute details in atmospheric guiding currents determine where the storm will eventually reach shore.
A small piece of the good news is that if a storm makes landfall in the north or west of the Gulf of Mexico, dry air from the north It might weaken it a little. However, that’s not much of a relief, when almost the entire Bay Area is warmer than average at the most active time of the year for hurricanes.
If the storm is heading east, you may avoid such dry air. That would be a concern if any potential path were to approach Florida.